The Sunday Brew #139
In this brew: India-US Trade in a picture | The Decoy Effect & Illusion of Asymmetric Insight | India-U.S. Rift, IBM-Moderna Quantum Breakthrough & ChatGPT-5 released
Welcome to The Sunday Brew, weekly 1-2-3 newsletter by The Percolator. Every Sunday we drop in your inbox 1 story in a picture, 2 concepts, ideas or frameworks to expand your horizons and 3 news from the week, to keep you updated.
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ONE STORY IN A PICTURE
TWO IDEAS, FRAMEWORKS OR CONCEPTS
This week we bring to you two cognitive fallacies - The Decoy Effect & Illusion of Asymmetric Insight
The Decoy Effect
The Decoy Effect is a subtle yet potent cognitive bias that shapes the way individuals make choices by introducing an additional, less attractive option into a set of alternatives.
When presented with two similar options, a person’s preference can significantly shift if a third option—the decoy—is introduced. This decoy is strategically constructed to be clearly inferior to one of the original options but resembles it more closely than it does the other. As a result, the decoy makes the preferred target option appear superior by comparison and nudges the decision-maker towards it, even though the decoy itself is rarely chosen.
For instance, in a classic marketing setup, a consumer might face the decision to buy a small or large popcorn at a theater, but when a medium size is introduced at a price only slightly less than the large, the large now seems like an excellent deal.
This phenomenon exploits our tendency to compare options relatively rather than absolutely, anchoring our perceptions around the context in which the choices are presented.
The effect has been used extensively in marketing, retail, and decision design to steer consumer behavior, but it also reveals the malleability of human judgment. It can lead to choices that might not align with one’s initial preference or utility, all because the added decoy reframes the decision landscape.
Understanding the Decoy Effect exposes the psychological levers that can undermine rational comparison and highlights the importance of mindful, independent evaluation when confronted with seemingly expanded choices. The influence of a decoy is so subtle that most people perceive their eventual choice as independent and well-considered, unaware of the contextual manipulation occurring behind the scenes
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Illusion of Asymmetric Insight
The Illusion of Asymmetric Insight is a cognitive bias whereby people believe they understand the thoughts, intentions, and motives of others better than others understand them.
This psychological tendency is deeply rooted in our egocentrism, the tendency to see our own perceptions and internal experiences as more nuanced, complex, and less accessible to others, while perceiving others’ behaviors as more transparent—even diagnosable. Research highlights that individuals frequently assume they know what drives those around them, whether friends, colleagues, or even social groups, yet underestimate how much of themselves they inadvertently reveal to others.
Several factors reinforce this illusion, including the conviction that observed behavior and spontaneous reactions are more revealing for others but not for oneself, leading people to overestimate the depth of their insight into someone else’s psyche. This bias has profound implications for relationships; it fosters misunderstanding, miscommunication, and overconfidence in judgments about others’ character while potentially blinding individuals to how much of their own thoughts or emotions are outwardly visible.
The Illusion of Asymmetric Insight affects group dynamics, with social or professional groups often believing they understand rival groups' motives and dynamics with more clarity than is reciprocated.
In practice, this distortion can result in skewed perceptions during conflicts, negotiations, or team collaborations, as each party believes it is uniquely perceptive. This illusion is sustained by our privileged access to our own thoughts and the superficial information we rely on to judge others, creating a persistent gap between how well we think we understand people and how well they understand us.
Recognizing this bias is crucial for developing self-awareness, fostering empathy, and improving communication, as it encourages humility about our own limitations in perceiving others and openness to feedback about how we are perceived.
THREE NEWS FROM THE WEEK
India-U.S. Rift Deepens After Trump’s 50% Tariff Shocks, Triggering Diplomatic Recalibration
A sharp escalation in U.S.-India tensions followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of punitive 50% tariffs on Indian imports, citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil as justification.
The move, doubling existing duties and set to fully take effect from August 27, dealt a severe blow to India’s $86.5b export relationship with its largest trading partner.
The Indian government condemned the tariffs as “unfair and unjustified,” vowing to protect its national interests and economic security, particularly for labor-intensive exporters like textiles and jewelry. The fallout was immediate: the Indian government paused major U.S. defense acquisitions and scrapped a planned visit by its defense minister to Washington. Washington, in turn, ruled out further trade negotiations until the standoff is resolved.
As Washington-New Delhi ties rapidly deteriorated, Prime Minister Narendra Modi recalibrated India’s global engagement. Modi’s first China visit in seven years was swiftly confirmed, with Beijing welcoming his participation at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit as a sign of thawing relations amidst U.S. hostility. Diplomatic signals indicated a potential shift in India’s balancing act between major powers.
In parallel, a constructive, hour-long conversation between PM Modi and Brazilian President Lula da Silva centered on the impact of “unilateral tariffs” by the U.S. Both leaders reiterated their commitment to strengthen bilateral ties and collaboration within BRICS, suggesting renewed South-South cooperation to counter Western trade pressure.
Russia publicly condemned the U.S. decision as illegal “threats” against sovereign countries, defending India’s sovereign right to set its own trade policy and deepening strategic alignment with New Delhi. Analysts suggest the trade war has jeopardized not only economic growth but decades of U.S-India strategic partnership building, forcing India to prioritize “strategic autonomy” in an increasingly multipolar world.
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IBM-Moderna Quantum Leap Sets New Standard for mRNA Drug Design
IBM and Moderna have announced a record-breaking quantum computing breakthrough, leveraging IBM’s Heron quantum processor to simulate the longest-ever mRNA folding pattern for drug development.
The joint research marks the first time a 60-nucleotide mRNA secondary structure—with complex features like “pseudoknots”—has been accurately predicted using quantum simulation methods, surpassing the limits of supercomputers and even leading AI models like DeepMind’s AlphaFold.
Messenger RNA (mRNA) therapies rely on precisely engineered molecular shapes to deliver genetic instructions to cells, underpinning vaccines and cutting-edge treatments. Determining these shapes—especially their intricate folds—is a colossal computational challenge, as the number of possible configurations escalates with each added nucleotide. Classical computing and AI were previously forced to simplify the models, often omitting complex interactions that could make or break a drug’s effectiveness.
IBM and Moderna’s approach used an innovative quantum variational optimization (CVaR-based VQA), borrowing risk assessment strategies from finance to home in on the best molecular structures. Their hybrid quantum-classical workflow mapped the complex folding landscape with unprecedented accuracy, setting the stage for faster, more robust vaccine and therapeutic design—potentially transforming future pandemic responses and personalized medicine.
Moderna’s scientists, now trained in quantum methodologies through IBM’s accelerator programs, are laying the groundwork for quantum-enabled R&D pipelines. With quantum advantage predicted to arrive within the next decade, this partnership showcases quantum computing’s immediate impact on biotech innovation by collapsing drug discovery timelines and lowering costs.
Industry analysts view the IBM-Moderna milestone as a foundational shift, putting quantum computing at the heart of mRNA science—and promising breakthroughs for diseases from cancer to cardiovascular disorders in the years ahead.
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ChatGPT-5 Unveiled: Sparks Heated Debate and Redefines AI Expertise
OpenAI launched ChatGPT-5 on August 7, 2025, marking its biggest leap in AI capabilities to date. Marketed as having "PhD-level" intelligence, GPT-5 seamlessly blends rapid response with deeper reasoning, offering expert-level proficiency across domains like coding, health, law, and creative writing.
CEO Sam Altman described GPT-5 as “genuinely resembling a PhD-level expert,” a far cry from prior versions that felt like chatting with a student.
The upgrade instantly went live for all ChatGPT users, though free users faced some prompt limits. With its robust new router, GPT-5 automatically adapts to the complexity of queries, removing confusion around model selection. Safety was a central focus, with OpenAI rolling out “safe completions”—responses that maintain nuance while respecting security boundaries—reducing unnecessary refusals and hallucination rates by nearly half compared to GPT-4, and sixfold versus previous reasoning models.
Reactions flooded social media. Many praised the model’s faster answers and polished long-form writing, while others aired frustrations over glitches and “underwhelming” performance on visual tasks, such as interpreting photographs. Some power users missed the old option to switch between models, while others marveled at outputs like full app builds and sophisticated business analysis within seconds. Industry analysts hailed the release as essential for OpenAI to reclaim leadership in the AI arms race where rivals like Anthropic and Google challenge its dominance.
Despite praise for reliability and multimodal prowess (handling text, images, and speech), critics noted GPT-5 still fell short of Artificial General Intelligence, with persistent memory and autonomy issues lingering. Nevertheless, the release signaled a new standard for generative AI, fueling both excitement and intense debate about the rapid advance—and limits—of machine intelligence in 2025.
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