Second-Order Thinking: Tool for Rewarding Outcomes

Thinking to solve for what is beyond the horizon

Situations aren’t always what they appear to be. Most seem simple unless we have considered all parts that sum up to them and all variables that are dependent upon them.

Any solution that addresses the immediate, superficial situation is called a First Order Solution. Almost everyone is good at proposing first order solutions. All that is required to do so, is to have a superficial understanding of the current state and an opinion on the future state. They more often than not end up proving disastrous in the long run.

History is replete with governments arming rebel groups to change one regime and then facing the brunt of heavily armed and well trained terrorists for decades.